Great depression Years.
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Never bear more than one kind of trouble at a time. Some people bear three - all they have had all they have now and all they expect to have. By Edward Everett Hale Find out about Great Depression Years
Great Depression II ??
August 4, 2008
It’s a recession…but so far not a big one.
Today’s economic data shows that real consumer spending was down a bit from the prior month. So Washington’s economic subsidy was mostly consumed in inflation and in saving. So far this is a slow-down…but the Great Depression it is not.
Real consumer spending is UP (that’s right…UP!) 1.2% from a year ago. That’s anemic…but it’s not negative.
Prices are up 4.1% on an annualized basis. Inflation numbers are always suspect, but that’s the worst we’ve seen in 17 years. That’s got to be all about petroleum and the commodities bubble. But still we aren’t experiencing runaway inflation. 4.1% on an annualized basis is not 10%, yet. This is going to damage bonds but also create buying opportunities in the balanced funds if longer Treasuries get hammered.
The savings rate is up 4.9% in May and 2.9% in June. So that’s where the tax rebate checks went. Fear is making us save, which is what we should have been doing all along.
Tomorrow the Federal Reserve is meeting to discuss the situation. Let’s see what they do. Meanwhile...this is not yet a catastrophe. It just feels like it.
July 12, 2008
Today the stocks of the big government-backed mortgage clearing houses Fanny Mae and Freddie Mac were slammed down at least 20%. Investors panicked at the thought that they might not have enough liquidity to continue business. Both stocks are down at least 80% from their highs.
Check out Table 9 at http://www.fanniemae.com/ir/pdf/monthly/2008/053108.pdf. As you can see, delinquencies have increased dramatically, but as far as we know, not catastrophically. Where is the data supporting the idea that these institutions will fail?
It might be argued that they have already failed. In the past two weeks I have met with two individual investors who are about to lose their homes because of negative amortizing adjustable rate mortgages. This kind of mortgage is essentially constructed to allow someone who cannot pay a mortgage to buy a home. In other words, these mortgages are made to fail. They are guaranteed disasters in the making. Somewhere out there are mortgage brokers who pocketed giant fees from selling these rancid contracts to these home buyers. Fannie Mae, Freddy Mac, and the entire mortgage industry should have made these illegal years ago. Where were they then?
Unless you own the stocks of these two behemoths, this will not affect you directly. Our value mutual funds are sure to be involved but to a very limited degree. Diversification is a good thing.
Meanwhile, everybody is terrified. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is bumping around 11,000. Dire predictions abound. And I'm hearing from investors who are betting it all on energy. To my contrarian mind, that means that energy will at some point become overpriced, and the stock market will eventually recover. When? I don't know. I DO know that I am happy to be in mutual funds to enlist proven professional investors in this very difficult stock picking environment. Beyond that, I don't know what will happen, and neither does anyone else. But history tells us that we'll get through this. I'm staying the course.
About the Author
www.andresenassoc.com
We have been in business since 1988 and we are one of the first independent fee-only investment advisory services in Salinas, California. In the spectrum of available investment advisors in Monterey County, we are noted for our technological innovation, our individual service, and our willingness to work as part of a financial team.
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What do you think the chances are of the USA having a Great Depression #2 in the next couple years?
I think its possible...and could be around the corner if things fall in the right place. but i want some answers as to why you think it could or could not happen.
We are well on our way.
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